Sound Transit/Metro Should Rethink Strategy in Wake of COVID-19 and Social Unrest Impact

Sound Transit (ST) is facing a massive revenue shortage through 2040, as reported by T.J. Martinell in The Lens on 6/08/2020:

· $1B reduction through 2041 due to proposed motor vehicle excise tax reduction

· Up to $12B reduction due to Covid-19 shutdowns

· Motor Vehicle Excise Tax (MVET), rental car tax, sales tax, and property tax comprise 67% of ST’s revenue; in April, MVET is down 25% and rental car tax is down 87%.

· 33% of ST’s revenues are from fares, grants, and debt service (presumably, interest income on bond proceeds). Fares are down 86% in April and debt service will rapidly reduce.

· Total revenue losses through 2040 would range from $7.8B for a moderate recession to $12B for a severe recession, about 23% of ST’s total budget.

ST’s revenues are not likely to recover to prior projections:

· There will be an aversion to public transportations until there is widespread inoculation of an effective vaccine.

· Working on-line from home will persist, wherever possible.

· Seattle may lose population as residents and businesses flee looting, arson, property damage, and violence/harassment, associated with Seattle’s social unrest. The Seattle Times already reports significant increase of interest in suburban homes.

· Seattle will lose businesses if draconian taxes are levied on them.

ST may consider higher tax rates and/or an increase in debt capacity, either of which requires 60% voter approval, but even Peter Rogoff admits that would be “extraordinarily difficult”.

ST/Metro needs to acknowledge the paradigm shift and scale back/defer capacity plans to meet revised expectations. The tradeoff between capital costs and revenue from operations must be reconsidered.

ST/Metro must also change their attitudes towards customers and listen to their needs rather than use their current command and control approach of forcing designs that optimize their operational efficiency. An example is on Mercer Island where ST/Metro wants to force busses that currently head to Seattle, including those that do not currently stop on Mercer Island, to terminate their routes at Mercer Island and transfer all passengers to light rail. These buses would layover and turn around via a roundabout on Mercer Island. This causes a tremendous increase in pedestrians and numerous adverse customer impacts:

· Longer travel time for passengers

· Increased congestion on North Mercer Way (NMW) and longer Islander commutes using private transportation.

· Increased congestion at the Mercer Island Park and Ride parking lot.

· Increased Mercer Island Police, Fire Department/Aide, and cleanup personnel

· Detrimental to pedestrian safety due to mixing of bicycles and pedestrians

· Increased capital costs for traffic signals, signal coordination, crosswalks, pavement markings, and traffic calming.

These adverse impacts do and will feed despising of Sound Transit by Eastside cities and residents, further reducing ridership and increasing resistance to tax increases.

Sound Transit could reduce capital and litigation costs by letting the buses that do not stop on Mercer Island today to continue their existing service. Buses that are not discontinued and that do stop on Mercer Island today should give their passengers the option to transfer to light rail, or continue by bus to Seattle. The roundabout, eminent domain purchases, traffic signals, signal coordination, crosswalks, and traffic calming could all be deferred and added in the future if a strong preference for transferring is exhibited by the bus passengers from the Eastside. This is an opportunity for goodwill and better cooperation.

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